On September 11, 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data at 8:30 a.m. ET, showing a 0.3% monthly increase and 2.9% year-over-year rise, slightly above June’s 2.7%, per Coincu and. Following a surprise 0.1% PPI decline and weak 22,000 job additions in August, markets expect a 25 bps Federal Reserve rate cut on September 18, with an 85% probability per CME FedWatch, per. Christopher Hodge of Natixis notes 150% higher tariff revenues driving inflation, but staggered implementation prevents sharp spikes, per.
Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $114,317.80, up 2.39% in 24 hours, with a $55.6B trading volume and $2.28T market cap, per CoinMarketCap and. Ethereum (ETH) is at $4,070, down 5%, testing the $4,200 pivot, per. The CPI data, signaling persistent inflation, has increased volatility, with BTC hitting an intraday low of $112,709, per Coincu. X posts from @CryptoInsights suggest profit-taking and leverage unwinding ahead of Fed decisions, per. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $246.42M net inflows last week, while Ethereum ETFs faced $787.74M outflows, reflecting cautious sentiment, per.
The CPI release, combined with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming Jackson Hole speech (August 22), is driving market focus, per. A hawkish Fed stance could push BTC to $105,600, while a dovish signal may drive it to $120,000, per. Coincu insiders note potential derivatives market shifts, with BTC open interest at $75B, signaling high volatility, per. Tariffs and job revisions (700,000–800,000 fewer jobs) further complicate dynamics, per. X posts from @TheBlock__ indicate institutional caution, per.
Monitor Fed updates on federalreserve.gov and ETF flows on CryptoQuant. BTC support is at $112,000, with resistance at $120,000; ETH support is at $4,000, per TradingView. Dollar-cost average into BTC or ETH, or diversify into USDC for stability, per. Follow @TheBlock__ on X for real-time updates. If a rate cut occurs, BTC could hit $150,000 by 2026, per Techopedia, but a hawkish Fed may cap gains, per.
