JPMorgan: Why Stablecoin Usage and Market Cap Are Diverging
JPMorgan analysts report that the rapid rise in stablecoin usage may not trigger a massive jump in total market capitalization. Even though transaction volumes are hitting record highs, the “velocity” of these digital assets is changing how the market grows. Velocity measures how often a single stablecoin is reused within a specific timeframe. As payment systems become more efficient, the same amount of coins can settle a much larger number of transactions.
The Impact of High Velocity on Market Expansion
The analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, believe that increased efficiency limits the need for more supply. When velocity rises, the digital economy requires fewer total coins to move trillions of dollars. Because of this, JPMorgan remains cautious about the future size of the stablecoin universe. They previously estimated the market cap will reach approximately $500–$600 billion by 2028, dismissing trillion-dollar predictions as overly optimistic.
Recent Growth and Shift Toward Real-World Payments
The stablecoin market has grown by nearly $100 billion over the past year. Including yield-bearing coins, the total value now exceeds $300 billion. This growth is currently outpacing the general crypto market, proving that stablecoins are now used for more than just trading. Data suggests that on-chain volumes are on track to reach $17.2 trillion this year, fueled by a shift from simple trading to practical daily payments.
Regulatory Drivers and Global Adoption Trends
A major catalyst for this growth was the passage of the GENIUS Act in the United States. This legislation has legitimized the use of stablecoins for commercial and merchant payments. While consumer-to-consumer transfers remain the most common, business-related transactions are growing at a much faster rate. Currently, Asia stands as the most dominant region for stablecoin activity, leading the world in integration and daily volume.
