The Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit, ongoing since December 2020, remains unresolved, with appeal delays impacting XRP’s spot ETF approval timeline, per coinpedia.org. Former SEC lawyer Marc Fagel debunked X posts from @CryptoCrows claiming a fourth closed-door SEC meeting on July 27, 2025, clarifying that the case is now with the Second Circuit Court of Appeals, not SEC commissioners, per fxempire.com. Both Ripple and the SEC filed appeals—Ripple challenging the $125M fine (reduced to $50M) for institutional sales, and the SEC contesting Judge Analisa Torres’ 2023 ruling that programmatic XRP sales are not securities, per coindesk.com. For Torres’ ruling to finalize, both must withdraw their appeals, but the SEC’s internal approval process, requiring a commissioner vote, is stalling progress, per bravenewcoin.com. X posts from @TheCryptoSquire and @Steph_iscrypto speculated a July 24 SEC meeting could lead to an appeal drop, but no confirmation materialized, per fxempire.com.
The SEC’s appeal delays are dampening prospects for XRP spot ETF approvals, with applications from Bitwise, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, Canary Capital, and WisdomTree pending, facing final deadlines between October 18–20, 2025, per @AbsGMCrypto on X. Polymarket odds for approval dropped from 98% in early June to 88% by mid-June, reflecting uncertainty, per cryptoslate.com. The SEC’s approval of ProShares Ultra XRP ETF, a 2x leveraged futures fund on July 18, 2025, and Teucrium’s 2x XRP ETF signals progress, but spot ETFs face stricter scrutiny due to XRP’s unresolved commodity status, per fingerlakes1.com. SEC Commissioners Caroline Crenshaw and Hester Peirce emphasized procedural delays, not rejection, citing rigorous compliance checks, per bravenewcoin.com. A spot ETF approval could drive XRP to $5, per fxempire.com, but delays may cap gains, with XRP at $3.20, down 0.03% on July 27, per CoinMarketCap.
XRP’s price, trading above the 50-day ($2.80) and 200-day ($2.00) EMAs, shows bullish momentum, but RSI at 81.89 signals overbought risks, per fxempire.com. A breakout above $3.66 could target $4–$5, while a drop below $3.00 risks $2.80, per ainvest.com. Ripple’s Brad Garlinghouse predicts approval by Q3 2025, per ccn.com, but regulatory uncertainty persists.
Hold XRP above $3.00 for potential rallies, but avoid new entries until the SEC confirms appeal withdrawal, expected by August 2025, per cryptoslate.com. Monitor SEC updates via @Ripple or CoinGlass and ETF filings on NYSE Arca. Diversify into BTC ($123,091) or ETH ($3,755) to hedge, per CoinMarketCap. Risks include:
XRP’s ETF prospects hinge on appeal resolution—verify court filings and SEC announcements before trading.
