Polymarket Traders Net $1M on Iran Strike Bets Hours Before Airstrikes
Onchain analytics firm Bubblemaps identified six Polymarket wallets that collectively netted approximately $989,191 in profit by betting “Yes” on the contract “US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?” — hours before the U.S. and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes early Saturday morning, February 28, 2026.
President Donald Trump confirmed the operation, dubbed “Operation Epic Fury”, targeting Iranian military sites. The Polymarket contract resolved “Yes” shortly after the strikes began.
All six wallets were funded within 24 hours of the attack, placed concentrated bets on the February 28 expiry, and fully exited positions after resolution.
Largest Winners
- Largest wallet: Bought 560,680 “Yes” shares at 10.8¢ → $494,375 net profit (spent ~$60,816)
- “Planktonbets”: 200,747 shares at 13.2¢ → $173,907 net profit
- “Dicedicedice”: 149,955 shares at 20¢ → $119,964 net profit (400% return)
- “Neodbs”: 98,838 shares at 10¢ → $88,954 net profit (900% return)
- “nothingeverhappens911”: Two winning bets → $66,436 net profit
- “Anon”: 55,556 shares at 18¢ → $45,556 net profit (456% return)
Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman told The Block:
“It’s almost impossible to be 100% certain [of insider knowledge] in these cases, but given the size of the bets, the freshly funded wallets, and the timing around the bets, it felt convincing enough for us to share.”
Contrasting Big Loser
One trader who had previously built $2 million+ in profits betting against strikes lost $6.5 million in a single day after the attacks were confirmed, flipping from $2M+ profit to $4.5M+ losses (Lookonchain data).
Pattern of Suspected Insider Activity on Polymarket
This is the latest in a series of high-profile suspected insider trades on Polymarket geopolitical markets:
- January 2026: New account wagered $32,000 at 7¢ on Venezuelan President Maduro’s ouster → $400,000+ profit after U.S. operation announced → prompted Rep. Ritchie Torres to introduce the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026.
- Early February 2026: Israeli reservist and civilian indicted for using classified intel to bet on Israel’s strike timing during the June 2025 Twelve-Day War → $150,000+ combined profits.
- Mid-February 2026: Suspected insiders netted over $1 million betting on ZachXBT’s probe into Axiom (Lookonchain).
The “US strikes Iran by…?” contract family has generated over $529 million in volume since December 2025 — one of Polymarket’s most heavily traded markets.
Regulatory & Platform Response
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan has previously defended informed trading, telling CBS News that insiders “having an edge on the market is a good thing” for price discovery. The platform secured CFTC approval as a regulated exchange in late 2025.
Rival Kalshi has endorsed the Torres bill and applies NYSE/Nasdaq-style insider trading rules. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour posted on X:
“Regulated prediction markets are not allowed to do war markets.”
Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) announced he is “working on legislation to ban corrupt and destabilizing prediction markets.”
Reviews:
Leave Your Review Here:
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut elit tellus, luctus nec ullamcorper mattis, pulvinar dapibus leo.
