Gemini announced its exit from the UK, EU, and Australia markets while cutting its workforce by 25%, aiming to concentrate on the U.S. and Singapore, per Kyle Baird’s February 6, 2026, report on The Block. This move follows challenges in international expansion and seeks to capitalize on clearer regulations and stronger institutional demand in core markets. GEMI shares traded at $7.60 after hitting a low of $6.35, reflecting broader crypto and equity selloffs, per The Block price data. The restructuring incurs $11 million in Q1 charges but is expected to reduce expenses and improve margins by late 2026.
Mizuho analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins called the pivot “margin-accretive,” reiterating an Outperform rating with a $26 price target and a bull-case scenario of $43—over 400% upside from current levels. They highlight prediction markets (CFTC-approved in December 2025) and institutional custody as key growth drivers beyond volatile spot trading. The focus on U.S. markets, where Gemini holds strong licensing, positions it to capture institutional flows amid Bitcoin’s $113,000 range and Ethereum’s stability.
Gemini’s international pullback contrasts with rivals like Binance and Coinbase, maintaining global presence, potentially ceding market share in Europe and Asia. GEMI’s 99% YTD decline underscores investor skepticism toward crypto-native exchanges, per Mizuho’s survey showing preference for fintech over crypto stocks in 2026. However, a U.S.-centric focus aligns with the Trump administration’s pro-crypto policies, including the GENIUS Act for stablecoins.
Gemini’s reset could accelerate profitability by H2 2026, with prediction markets and custody defending revenue. GEMI offers high-risk, high-reward potential, but volatility persists amid ETF outflows and macro uncertainty. Investors should monitor Q1 earnings for restructuring impacts and CFTC developments on prediction markets. BTC support at $112,000 remains key for sector sentiment.
