As of February 19, 2026, Gemini (GGEMI) shares trade near all-time lows at $5.90, down 43% in the past 30 days, according to The Block. Mizuho analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins maintain an “outperform” rating with a $26 price target, arguing the slump already factors in recent leadership exits of the COO, CFO, and CLO, per Bloomberg. Preliminary revenue of $165M–$175M slightly beat Mizuho’s $168M estimate, but adjusted EBITDA losses widened to -$257M–$267M versus -$224M forecast by CoinDesk. X posts from @TheBlock__ highlight cost reductions, including a 25% workforce cut and exits from the UK, EU, and Australia, as margin boosters.
Gemini’s revenue outperformance stems from resilient crypto trading volumes amid broader market pressures. However, wider losses reflect operational challenges in a volatile sector, with Bitcoin (BTC) at $113,234 and Ethereum (ETH) at $4,070 showing similar dips. The Mizuho note describes Gemini as a “crypto-heavy app,” suggesting weak ties to broader digital asset market trends rather than company-specific issues, Reuters reported. Technical analysis from TradingView shows GGEMI testing support at $5.50, with potential rebound to $8 if sentiment improves.
Mizuho views Gemini’s restructuring, including geographic narrowing, as a path to profitability, potentially improving margins over time, Bloomberg. The firm’s $43 bull case implies over 600% gains from current levels, assuming stronger growth, while the $8 bear case still exceeds today’s price. X posts from @CryptoInsights tie the slump to industry-wide factors, like delayed Solana ETF approvals and Illinois’ strict crypto laws. Regulatory risks, including SEC scrutiny under the Securities Act of 1933, loom for Coinlaw.io, but Paul Atkins’ pro-innovation stance offers hope.
Looking ahead, Mizuho values Gemini at 7x estimated 2027 revenue, a discount to peers’ 10x median, supporting the $26 target, per Reuters. A sentiment shift could drive recovery, but volatility persists. Investors should monitor support at $5.50 and resistance at $8 on TradingView. Diversify across BTC and ETH, with stop-losses below $112,000 and $4,000, respectively. Follow @TheBlock__ on X for updates. Gemini’s challenges mirror broader crypto woes, but cost cuts may stabilise it by 2027.
