While Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle may not unfold exactly as in the past, experts argue that the idea is far from irrelevant.
In a recent interview at Token2049 Singapore, Saad Ahmed, Head of APAC at Gemini, explained that the cycle is still likely to persist in some form. “The excitement leads people to overextend, followed by a crash, and then a natural correction back to equilibrium,” he said.
Ahmed added that the increasing involvement of institutions could help reduce volatility in the crypto market. “Some of the swings may flatten out, but cycles will continue because they’re ultimately fueled by human emotion,” he noted.
The relevance of Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle has been widely debated. On August 21, analytics firm Glassnode suggested that Bitcoin’s recent moves still align with historical cycle trends.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital also pointed out that October could mark the peak of this cycle, mirroring the 2020 pattern roughly 550 days after the April 2024 halving. “There’s only a small window left for price expansion,” he said.
Bitcoin’s momentum supports this view. Over the past week, BTC surged 11.5% to reach $123,850—just shy of its all-time high of $124,100 set on August 14, according to CoinMarketCap.
However, not all experts agree. Matt Hougan of Bitwise believes Bitcoin won’t strictly follow past cycles, predicting instead that 2026 will still be a strong year. “We’re in for a good few years ahead,” Hougan commented.
Historically, Q4 has been Bitcoin’s best-performing quarter since 2013, delivering an average return of nearly 80%, according to CoinGlass. This sets the stage for a highly anticipated close to the year.
