On November 17, 2025, Ethereum (ETH) plunged below $3,000 for the first time in four months, hitting a low of $2,970, marking a 40% decline from its August all-time high of $4,946, per Cointelegraph and. Trading at $3,185 as of November 18, ETH is down 3% in the last 24 hours, with the total crypto market cap slipping to $3.8T, per CoinMarketCap. This downturn, amid broader risk asset weakness and profit-taking, raises questions: is this a necessary market reset, or a sign the bull run is faltering? Analysts like Vincent Liu from Kronos Research point to leveraged liquidations and a wait-and-see mode ahead of key events.
The drop stems from profit-taking after ETH’s post-election rally, where it crossed $3,000 following Donald Trump’s re-election, driven by expectations of a crypto-friendly administration, per Changelly. Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows in August, tapering from July’s record inflows, reflecting cooling institutional enthusiasm, per. Whale accumulation has slowed, with the Holder Accumulation Ratio (HAR) dipping to 30.45%, indicating long-term holders are trimming exposure while whales build positions, per BeInCrypto. Technical indicators show ETH below its 50-day SMA ($3,719), with RSI at 39.74 signaling neutral-to-bearish momentum, per CoinCodex. Global economic concerns, including Fed rate cut expectations, add pressure on risk assets.
ETH’s breach of the $3,000 support—a historical pivot—tests bullish resilience, per. A reclaim above $3,000 could signal a reset, targeting $3,850–$3,900 by late November, per CoinDCX. However, failure might lead to $2,500, per. The 200-day SMA ($3,719) looms as resistance, with low volatility (6.66% 1-month) suggesting consolidation, per CoinCodex. Hidden bullish divergence on the 2-day chart—higher lows in price vs. lower RSI lows—hints at potential rebound if BTC ($113,234) stabilizes above $112,000, per BeInCrypto. November has historically delivered 6.9% average gains for ETH, with 2024’s 47% surge as a benchmark.
The FOMC minutes (November 20) and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech (November 22) could sway sentiment, with an 85% chance of a 25 bps rate cut in December boosting risk assets, per CME FedWatch. Ethereum’s staking yield (4–5%) and tokenized infrastructure growth attract whales, per BeInCrypto, while Layer 2 upgrades like Fusaka (November 2025) enhance scalability, per CoinDCX. ETH could hit $5,500–$12,000 in 2025 if institutional inflows resume, per Tom Lee, but a sustained dip below $3,000 risks a bearish cycle, per. DeFi TVL at $167B provides a buffer, but NFT and DEX volume declines signal caution.
Track ETH flows on CryptoQuant and ETF data on SoSoValue. Dollar-cost average into ETH with stop-losses below $2,970, or diversify into USDC for stability, per TradingView. Follow @TheBlock__ on X for Fed updates. ETH’s November forecast: $3,870 average, per CoinDataFlow, but volatility persists until rate cut clarity. This dip may be a shakeout, positioning ETH for $4,000+ by year-end if bulls reclaim $3K.
