As of February 17, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) remains pinned below $70,000, trading around $68,600, down more than 21% quarter-to-date and on track for its weakest Q1 since 2015, according to data from The Block and CoinGlass. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $360 million in net outflows last week, extending a month-long trend totalling $3.7 billion, according to CoinShares. Ethereum ETFs saw $161 million leave, while Solana and XRP products posted modest inflows. This institutional retrenchment, amid cooling inflation (2.4% CPI) and resilient jobs data, reflects a wait-and-see stance ahead of FOMC minutes and Jackson Hole.
Derivatives markets show asymmetry, with a 10% upside move liquidating $4.3 billion in shorts versus $2.4 billion in longs on the downside. Crowded short positioning increases the risk of a volatility squeeze if a catalyst emerges, BRN’s Timothy Misir. On-chain data reveal whale accumulation, with exchange outflows rising to a 3.2% 30-day SMA since BTC fell below $80,000, resembling early 2022 base-building, according toGlassnode. Harvard trimmed IBIT holdings by 21% but added $87 million in ETHA, signalling selective rotation.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, at a record low of 5, reflects extreme fear, driven by the October 10, 2025 (“10/10”) $19 billion liquidation cascade. Yet institutional DeFi engagement persists, with BlackRock and Citadel advancing RWA tokenisation. Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio near 1.1 suggests undervaluation, while NUPL enters “Hope/Fear” territory. Ethereum hovers near $1,950, with Layer 2 activity supporting long-term growth, according to DefiLlama. Metaplanet’s $619M loss on 35,102 BTC highlights treasury risks.
Analysts anticipate violent impulse moves, with BTC support at $60,000 and resistance at $72,000. A dovish Powell at Jackson Hole could spark a rally to $80,000, while hawkish signals risk $50,000, according to Standard Chartered. Investors should monitor ETF flows on SoSoValue and on-chain metrics via CryptoQuant. Dollar-cost average into BTC or ETH with stop-losses below $60,000 and $1,900, or hold USDC for stability, TradingView. Follow @TheBlock__ on X for updates. While retail fear dominates, whale accumulation and institutional resilience could prime a 2026 rebound.
