As of mid-January 2026, Bitcoin’s short-term holder supply ratio (STH-SOPR) has climbed above the 1.0 break-even threshold, according to on-chain analytics firm Checkonchain. This metric shows that recent buyers are, on average, no longer underwater — a level that has historically preceded local bottoms and reduced panic selling.
Frank Fetter, lead analyst at Checkonchain, commented:
“Bitcoin’s bottom appears underway from an on-chain perspective, as short-term holder supply ratios ease toward break-even levels that have signaled past market bottoms.”
The shift follows a year-end reset that cleared out leveraged positions and underwater coins, creating a “cleaner” market structure.
In previous cycles, whenever short-term holders returned to break-even after a significant drawdown, BTC often stabilized and began a new accumulation or recovery phase:
After touching an intraday low near $92,800, Bitcoin rebounded to trade around $94,400 (as of the article’s publication), suggesting early signs of capitulation exhaustion and renewed buying interest.
Current levels offer a reasonable risk-reward zone for medium- to long-term accumulation. Key risk management levels:
Diversification into stablecoins (USDC/USDT) during consolidation remains prudent while waiting for stronger confirmation.
