Bitcoin Rebound Labeled 'Relief Rally' by CryptoQuant – Not New Bull Cycle
CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno stated on March 5, 2026, that Bitcoin’s recent bounce above $73,000 is most likely a short-term relief rally inside an ongoing bear market, not the beginning of a new bullish cycle.
“Bitcoin is still inside a bear market, despite the recent price rally,” Moreno wrote. “Fundamental and technical indicators still point to a bear market environment […] As such, the current rally is best interpreted as a relief rally inside the ongoing bear market.”
Bitcoin is trading around $71,160 as of March 5, 2026, down nearly 3% in the past 24 hours.
Key On-Chain Improvements Supporting the Bounce
Several metrics show reduced selling pressure, helping fuel the short-term recovery:
- Spot demand contraction narrowed dramatically from -136,000 BTC at the start of 2026 to roughly -25,000 BTC recently.
- U.S. spot demand flipped strongly positive: the Coinbase Bitcoin premium reached its highest level since October 2025.
- Trader unrealized losses hit levels last seen in July 2022 → historically a point where marginal selling pressure drops sharply.
- Long-term holder selling slowed from 904,000 BTC (30-day pace on Nov 26, 2025) to just 276,000 BTC — the lowest since June 2025.
These improvements explain why price found temporary support, but they do not yet signal the return of a sustained bull market.
Bearish Regime Still Dominant
CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull Score Index remains extremely low at 10/100, indicating that most fundamental and technical signals associated with a bullish cycle have not recovered.
Moreno identified two major resistance zones if Bitcoin attempts to rally further:
- ≈ $79,000 — lower band of traders’ on-chain realized price (frequent resistance in bear markets)
- ≈ $90,000 — broader traders’ realized price (previously capped a rally earlier in 2026)
Investor Takeaways
- The recent bounce is technically driven by reduced selling pressure, not a fundamental regime change.
- Bear market context remains intact until the Bull Score Index and other macro/on-chain indicators show meaningful recovery.
- Watch $79,000 closely — a failure here would reinforce the relief-rally thesis.
- U.S. demand (Coinbase premium) and LTH behavior are the most important metrics to monitor for any potential cycle shift.
Markets remain extremely sentiment-driven. Many traders are positioned for either a deeper correction or a surprise reversal — the next few weeks of price action and on-chain flow will be decisive.
