According to CryptoQuant, the recent rally in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) was primarily driven by traders opening new long positions in perpetual futures, rather than short liquidations.
Following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire, BTC rose roughly 4% and ETH climbed about 6% within 24 hours — the strongest single-day move in over a month.
Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, noted that open interest in BTC and ETH perpetual futures surged by $2.1 billion and $2.2 billion respectively in that period. Dollar-denominated open interest for both assets reached levels not seen in nearly a month. The increase in coin-denominated open interest further confirmed that traders were establishing fresh bullish bets rather than simply covering shorts.
The taker buy-sell ratio for both BTC and ETH moved above 1, indicating dominant buying pressure and stronger directional conviction from traders. This coordinated bullish positioning across the two largest cryptocurrencies suggests the market is pricing in a short-term improvement in macro conditions following the ceasefire news.
Additionally, demand from U.S. investors picked up, with the Coinbase Premium Index turning positive for both BTC and ETH after remaining negative for several weeks. Moreno noted that if the ceasefire holds and no escalatory news emerges, the premium could stay positive and support further upside.
On the price side, Bitcoin has reclaimed the traders’ lower realized price near $69,400, a level that had acted as resistance for several weeks. If BTC holds above this zone and the geopolitical situation remains calm, the next significant target is the traders’ realized price around $79,000 — a historically important level associated with bear market resistance.
The rally comes after a period of bearish pressure and reflects renewed optimism tied to improving risk sentiment. However, analysts caution that the move remains sensitive to geopolitical developments over the next two weeks. Sustained positive macro news could extend the recovery, while renewed tensions might trigger a quick reversal.
Investor takeaway: The data points to genuine bullish conviction through new long positioning rather than forced short covering. Traders are closely watching BTC’s ability to hold above $69,400 and ETH’s reaction around the $4,100–$4,200 zone as key short-term signals.
