Iran Crypto Volume Falls 80% After Strikes — But Infrastructure Remains Sound
Iran’s cryptocurrency transaction volume plunged roughly 80% between February 27 and March 1, 2026, following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to TRM Labs. The analytics firm attributes the contraction primarily to nationwide internet restrictions imposed after the February 28 attacks, rather than a breakdown of market infrastructure.
Major domestic exchanges — Nobitex, Wallex, and Tabdeal — remain operational in a “risk-managed state,” with temporary withdrawal suspensions, batched processing, reduced order-book depth, and user risk warnings in place.
Central Bank Suspends USDT-Toman Pair
Iran’s central bank directed platforms to halt trading of the USDT-toman pair — the main crypto-to-fiat bridge — immediately after the strikes. When trading resumed, thin order books and short-lived price dislocations reflected impaired liquidity, TRM reported.
Capital Flight Debate: TRM vs. Elliptic
TRM observed that Nobitex recorded about $3 million more in combined inflows/outflows post-strikes — within the range of normal operations — and cautioned against concluding that capital flight is occurring.
This contrasts with Elliptic’s earlier analysis, which reported a 700% spike in Nobitex outflows to nearly $3 million on Saturday, with CEO Tom Robinson suggesting the surge “potentially represents capital flight from Iran.”
TRM emphasized that recent volume patterns align with mechanical access limitations rather than structural failure, urging restraint in interpreting outflows as mass exodus at this stage.
Geopolitical Backdrop Remains Tense
The strikes, dubbed Operation Epic Fury by the U.S. Department of War, have kept markets on edge. Iran’s top national security official stated Tehran will not negotiate with the U.S., while President Trump claimed agreement to talks. No clear de-escalation path has emerged.
Market Context and Crypto Resilience
Bitcoin held near $66,772 (down ~1%) and Ethereum at $1,971 (down 2.2%) during Asian trading Monday, showing relative stability compared to sharper declines in equities (Nikkei -2.5%+, Topix -3%) and the surge in oil (Brent ~$78/bbl, +7%).
Crypto’s 24/7 nature allowed early price discovery and de-risking over the weekend, while traditional markets were closed.
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