JPMorgan: Bitcoin’s Biggest Risk Isn’t Strategy, But Limited Public Blockchain Adoption
JPMorgan analysts say Strategy’s Bitcoin sales are not the main threat to Bitcoin. The bigger long-term risk comes from blockchain adoption that bypasses public permissionless networks.
Main Risk According to JPMorgan
If tokenization, payments, and settlement move primarily to permissioned (private) blockchains instead of public ones like Ethereum, it could hurt the entire crypto ecosystem. This shift may lead to slower activity, lower liquidity, and reduced capital flows — eventually putting pressure on Bitcoin.
“We do not see Strategy as the main structural threat to bitcoin,” the analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou stated in their report.
Why Permissioned Blockchains Are Preferred
Institutions favor permissioned blockchains because they provide:
- Better privacy and control
- Stronger KYC and AML compliance
- Higher transaction speed and scalability
- Clear legal accountability and regulatory certainty
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has also warned against using public blockchains for important financial infrastructure, instead promoting permissioned unified ledgers.
Impact on Stablecoins and RWAs
Widespread adoption of tokenized bank deposits could reduce demand for stablecoins. Projects like SWIFT’s blockchain initiatives and CBDCs (digital euro, digital yuan) further support regulated alternatives.
Real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, currently around $50 billion, may also stay mostly within traditional finance rather than moving fully to public chains.
What Could Change the Outlook
The analysts noted that the Clarity Act might not fully resolve these risks. However, positive developments such as:
- Hybrid public-private blockchain models
- Stronger stablecoin regulation
- Bitcoin performing as “digital gold”
