Bitcoin Rally Faces Key Resistance Zone at $75,000–$85,000, Says CryptoQuant
As of March 17, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $74,500, up roughly 1% in the last 24 hours, according to The Block’s price data. CryptoQuant reports that perpetual futures traders have become decisively bullish in recent days, especially as the market anticipates the Federal Reserve interest-rate decision on March 19.
Key derivatives signals include:
- Short liquidations accelerated once BTC moved above $70,000
- New long positions opened aggressively above $73,000
- Funding rates flipped from “extremely negative” (until March 13) to “mostly positive” (since March 15)
- Taker buy/sell volume ratio > 1 (buy orders dominating) for both BTC and ETH
Ethereum funding rates have stayed mostly positive since March 9, with only a brief dip into negative territory on March 16.
Two Major Resistance Bands Loom Ahead
CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno highlighted two critical levels that could cap the current rally:
- $75,000 — lower boundary of the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price (dotted blue line on charts). This band has historically acted as resistance during bear-market recoveries.
- $85,000 — upper boundary of the same Traders’ On-chain Realized Price (violet line). The zone rejected price advances in mid-January (after BTC rallied from $80k → $98k) and again in October 2025.
If BTC sustains above $75,000, the next meaningful supply wall sits near $85,000.
Exchange Inflows Signal Potential Selling Pressure
While futures positioning looks bullish, on-chain flows tell a different story:
- Hourly BTC inflows to exchanges spiked to 6,100 BTC on March 16 — the highest since February 20
- Large deposits (≥ 100 BTC) accounted for 63% of total inflows — the highest share since at least mid-October 2025
Historically, sharp increases in large transfers to exchanges precede periods of elevated selling pressure.
Investor Takeaways & Key Levels to Watch
- Bull case: BTC breaks and holds $75,000 → next target $85,000 (Traders’ Realized Price upper band)
- Bear case: Failure to clear $75,000 + continued large inflows → possible retest of $70,000–$72,000
- Pivot level: $73,000 — area where aggressive new longs started building
- Fed wildcard: A dovish Powell at Jackson Hole (March 22) could fuel another leg higher; hawkish comments or no-cut signals may trigger a deeper pullback
Monitor exchange inflows, funding rates, and taker buy/sell ratios on CryptoQuant for early signs of exhaustion or renewed buying pressure.
