On February 14, 2026, Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer cut his Coinbase (COIN) price target from $421 to $267, a 37% reduction, while maintaining a buy rating. The Block. The downgrade followed Coinbase’s Q4 2025 results, in which revenue missed estimates, and a $667M net loss was driven by unrealised crypto losses. COIN shares surged 18% to $164 on the report day, implying 60% upside to Palmer’s target. The move reflects short-term weakness in the crypto market but highlights Coinbase’s evolving resilience.
Despite the miss, Coinbase showcased growing diversification. Institutional transaction revenue rose 37% sequentially to $185M, boosted by the Deribit acquisition. Stablecoin revenue hit $364M with record USDC balances, and subscription/services revenue reached $727.4M 43% of net revenue, up from prior cycles. CEO Brian Armstrong emphasised derivatives and stablecoins as growth drivers, noting that AI agent payments areaccelerating. Full-year subscription revenue grew 23% to $2.8B, with 12 products exceeding $100M in annualised revenue.
Bitcoin’s pullback from $124,000 and Ethereum’s dip impacted transaction revenue (-6% to $983M). Benchmark’s FY26 EPS cut to $5.34 (down 21%) reflects caution, with Q1 estimates 19% below consensus. Other analysts remain bullish: Bernstein at $440 (outform), Canaccord at $300 (buy), while Pi Sandler cut to $150 (neutral). Coinbase guided Q1 subscription revenue $550–$630M and authorized $2B in buybacks, ending 2025 with $11.3B cash.
Palmer argues Coinbase’s short-term crypto beta behaviour masks its shift to an “Everything Exchange”, with equities trading (10,000 tickers), prediction markets, and commodities volumes. USDC’s $5B+ supply and Circle’s GTR compliance bolster stability. Risks include SEC scrutiny and volatility, but diversified revenue (43% non-transaction) positions Coinbase for durability. Investors should monitor ETF flows and buybacks; COIN could reach $300+ by 2026 if crypto rebounds.
