TD Cowen Cuts Nakamoto Price Target 58% After Bitcoin Outlook Reset
TD Cowen has lowered its price target for Nakamoto, the David Bailey-led Bitcoin treasury company. The firm still maintains a Buy rating on the stock. Analysts pointed to pressure from Bitcoin’s recent decline on the company’s debt-heavy capital structure.
New Target Still Shows Large Upside
Analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete set the split-adjusted price target at $17. This represents a 58% cut from the previous outlook. The new target still implies nearly 275% upside from current levels.
Nakamoto completed a 1-for-40 reverse split in May. The earlier $1 target equals $40 on today’s share basis.
Bitcoin Price Assumptions Drive Valuation Change
TD Cowen’s revised base case expects Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2026. That level sits about 25% below its $126,000 all-time high from last October. The firm also forecasts that Nakamoto will pause additional Bitcoin purchases until 2027.
“We continue to view bitcoin holdings as the primary driver of value,” the analysts wrote. They valued projected year-end Bitcoin holdings at roughly $521 million. Debt and preferred securities reduce the amount available to common shareholders.
Recent Balance Sheet Moves Viewed Positively
Nakamoto currently holds 4,467 BTC worth about $290 million. This ranks it as the 22nd-largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder.
TD Cowen welcomed recent refinancing steps. The company repaid about $45 million in debt, extended $105 million of principal through June 2027, and lowered borrowing costs. It also authorized a share repurchase program of up to $25 million.
Company Shifts Focus After Closing Legacy Business
Nakamoto finished closing its legacy healthcare clinics last month. The company now concentrates on Bitcoin media, asset management and advisory services.
NAKA shares traded at $4.65 on Monday, down more than 4.5% for the day. The stock has fallen over 71% this year, compared with Bitcoin’s roughly 26% decline in the same period.
