Galaxy Research Lowers Clarity Act Approval Odds to 30%
Galaxy Research has reduced its forecast for the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 from 50% to 30%. The firm believes the bill faces increasing challenges as the U.S. Senate works against a tight deadline before the August recess. According to Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s Head of Research, lawmakers now have very little time to build the political support needed to move the crypto market structure legislation forward.
Senate Faces Political and Time Pressure
Although Senate negotiators recently released the latest version of the Clarity Act, Thorn said the support required to pass the bill is still not in place. He warned that both the limited legislative calendar and uncertainty among lawmakers have become major obstacles. Thorn added that the bill now requires a “last ditch effort” and stronger leadership if it is to reach President Donald Trump’s desk this year.
Democrats Seek Stronger Consumer and Ethics Protections
The latest draft of the Clarity Act has drawn criticism from seven Democratic senators, who argue that it does not provide enough safeguards. They are calling for stronger rules covering consumer protection, ethics, conflicts of interest, and efforts to prevent illicit financial activity. Their concerns have made it more difficult to build the bipartisan support needed for the legislation to advance.
Crypto Industry Pushes for Senate Action
Leading crypto organizations, including the Crypto Council for Innovation, the Blockchain Association, and The Digital Chamber, have urged Senate leaders to prioritize debate on the Clarity Act before lawmakers leave for the August recess. The groups believe the legislation would establish clear federal regulations for digital assets while improving investor protection and providing greater regulatory certainty for the crypto industry.
Industry Leaders Call for Immediate Action
Several industry figures have also stressed the need for quick action. SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci said the biggest challenge is the legislative process rather than the bill itself. Alex Thorn echoed that view, arguing that negotiations have reached a critical stage and that immediate leadership is needed to keep the Clarity Act alive. Without swift action, the chances of the bill becoming law in 2026 could continue to decline.
