CryptoQuant Warns of Near-Term Selling Pressure
On April 15, 2026, CryptoQuant highlighted rising profit-taking risks for Bitcoin (BTC) after it briefly surpassed $76,000, its highest level since early February. The price has since pulled back to around $74,800, testing a key resistance zone at the traders’ on-chain realized price of $76,800, according to head of research Julio Moreno.
This level previously capped the January 2026 bear-market rally. If selling pressure builds, a similar reversal could occur, with $67,600 acting as the next major support.
Exchange Inflows Spike as Warning Sign
A key red flag is the sharp increase in Bitcoin exchange inflows. Hourly inflows recently hit around 11,000 BTC, the highest since late December 2025. Large holders are driving this activity, with the mean deposit size jumping to 2.25 BTC — the highest daily reading since July 2024 — and many deposits exceeding 1,000 BTC on Binance.
The share of large deposits surged from below 10% to over 40% of total inflows in just a few days. Historically, such spikes above 40% have preceded short-term corrections. A similar pattern in March 2026 (9,000 BTC hourly inflows with 63% large-deposit concentration) led to a quick price pullback.
Profit-Taking Not Yet at Peak
Daily realized profits currently stand at approximately $500 million, still below the $1 billion threshold that often signals a significant profit-taking spike in bear markets. However, if BTC sustains above $76,000 or pushes toward the $76,800 realized price, realized profits could accelerate rapidly toward or beyond $1 billion, increasing the chance of a rally stall or reversal.
What This Means for Bitcoin
The combination of rising exchange inflows from large holders, testing of a historically strong resistance level, and potential for accelerated profit-taking creates a cautious near-term outlook for Bitcoin. While the broader macro environment (easing U.S.-Iran tensions and a weaker dollar) provided temporary support, on-chain signals suggest the rally may face significant headwinds in the coming days or weeks.
Key levels to watch:
- Resistance: $76,800 (traders’ realized price)
- Support: $67,600
Investors should monitor exchange inflow trends and realized profit levels closely. A break above $76,800 with declining inflows could confirm continued bullish momentum, while sustained high inflows and rising realized profits would favor a correction.
