Bitwise’s latest report (released January 22, 2026) concludes that Q4 2025 exhibited classic bear-market-bottom characteristics: crypto prices underperformed while on-chain fundamentals reached new highs. Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan explicitly compares the current setup to Q1 2023 – the period immediately following the FTX collapse, when Bitcoin bottomed near $16,000 before climbing toward $98,000 by early 2025.
Key divergences highlighted in the report:
Hougan’s core thesis: “That’s the kind of divergence you get at the bottom of bear markets – when sentiment is down but fundamentals are up.”
The report identifies four major catalysts that could fuel a recovery:
These tailwinds, combined with already-record Layer-2 usage and DeFi adoption, form the backbone of Bitwise’s constructive 2026 outlook.
Not all firms share Bitwise’s near-term optimism:
The market currently appears caught between these two camps: fundamentals continue improving, yet macro/political uncertainty caps near-term upside.
