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Standard Chartered Sees Ethereum Hitting $40,000 by 2030

Ethereum logo with phoenix wings rising over a city skyline symbolizing Ethereum price outlook and crypto market growth

Standard Chartered’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoffrey Kendrick, released an updated long-term outlook projecting Ethereum could reach $40,000 by 2030.

At the current circulating supply, that implies a network valuation of roughly $4.8 trillion — putting ETH’s potential market cap in the same league as the largest global technology and financial companies today.

The report positions 2026 as the pivotal “year of Ethereum,” driven by four key growth engines.

Four Main Drivers Behind the Bull Case

  1. Stablecoin dominance on Ethereum Kendrick expects Ethereum to capture the majority of new stablecoin issuance over the coming years, especially as major issuers continue to prioritize the chain for its security, liquidity, and developer ecosystem.
  2. Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization Growing institutional interest in tokenized treasuries, bonds, real estate, and private credit is expected to flow disproportionately to Ethereum due to its mature DeFi infrastructure and established custody solutions.
  3. DeFi leadership & revenue growth, Ethereum continues to generate the largest amount of protocol revenue among Layer 1 networks. Kendrick sees this revenue flywheel strengthening as more activity migrates on-chain.
  4. Layer 1 scaling progress. Successful execution of the upcoming Pectra upgrade (and future roadmap items) should materially increase throughput, lower gas costs for end-users, and improve overall user experience — all while preserving decentralization and security.

Near-Term Catalyst: 2026 as the Inflection Point

Standard Chartered’s analysts view 2026 as the year multiple tailwinds converge:

  • Major Layer 1 scaling upgrades go live
  • Institutional stablecoin and RWA flows accelerate
  • DeFi TVL and protocol revenue reach new highs
  • ETH/BTC ratio potentially begins a sustained recovery

If these pieces fall into place, the path to significantly higher valuations becomes more realistic.

Current Market Context

At the time of writing, Ethereum trades around $4,100–$4,200 (mid-January 2026), roughly 10× below the 2030 target.

The forecast assumes continued execution on scaling, no major regulatory setbacks in key jurisdictions, and steady institutional adoption.

Investor Takeaways

  • Long-term believers in Ethereum’s Layer 1 thesis and DeFi/RWA dominance may view the $40k target as plausible under favorable conditions.
  • Risks remain significant: regulatory uncertainty, competition from alternative L1s/L2s, execution delays on upgrades, and macro shocks.
  • The report is one of the more constructive institutional views on Ethereum’s long-term trajectory released in early 2026.

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