Barclays released a year-end report on December 12, 2025, warning of a “down-year” for cryptocurrency trading in 2026 due to fading retail participation and declining spot volumes. Analysts noted that spot crypto trading volumes are trending lower for FY26, with no clear catalysts to reverse the slide. This follows a cooling from 2025 peaks, as retail-focused platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood face revenue pressure.
Barclays lowered its Coinbase (COIN) price target from $357 to $291, maintaining an Equal Weight rating. The cut reflects shrinking spot volumes, rising costs, and limited near-term growth drivers, despite Coinbase’s push into derivatives, tokenized equities, and diversification. The bank sees 2026 as a transitional period, with tokenization and U.S. regulatory reforms like the CLARITY Act as long-term positives but gradual in impact.
Barclays highlights tokenization initiatives from BlackRock and Robinhood as strategic, but too early to boost 2026 earnings materially. The CLARITY Act, passed by the House in July 2025 and under Senate review, could clarify SEC/CFTC oversight and encourage compliant products. However, progress may be slow, with benefits emerging post-2026. The report notes much 2025 optimism is already priced in after pro-crypto election outcomes.
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