On December 8, 2025, Paradigm researcher Storm Slivkoff published an analysis revealing that major analytics dashboards, including DeFiLlama, Allium, Blockworks, and Dune, have been double-counting Polymarket’s trading volume due to redundant on-chain events, per Paradigm’s blog and Cointelegraph. This error inflates both notional and cashflow metrics by roughly 2x, as Polymarket’s smart contracts emit separate “OrderFilled” events for makers and takers that represent the same trade. For example, a $4.13 trade is recorded as $8.26 in volume per. The bug does not involve wash trading but stems from the platform’s complex data structure.
Polymarket’s events include “OrderFilled” for swaps, splits, and merges, with redundant representations for tracking purposes. Block explorers fail to distinguish these, leading to flawed accounting across dashboards. Paradigm’s investigation shows monthly volumes around 50% of reported figures; for instance, November’s $3.7B Dune-reported volume may be closer to $1.85 B. This affects comparisons with competitors like Kalshi, per. Polymarket, valued at $9B after Intercontinental Exchange’s reported interest, did not immediately respond to Cointelegraph.
The revelation could undermine Polymarket’s perceived dominance in prediction markets, which hit $25.9B in 3-year trading volume, per Token Terminal. As a “rare crypto success” amid spot and derivatives turmoil, inflated metrics may dent its $9B valuation narrative, per. Storm emphasized the need for consistent reporting standards as prediction markets mature. X posts from @notnotstorm detail the bug, with Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang amplifying it, per. Users like @lukecannon727 question if competitors influenced the research.
Dashboards may need recalibration, potentially halving Polymarket’s reported activity, per. With Polymarket eyeing a U.S. launch at $10B+ valuation, accurate metrics are crucial, per Bloomberg. Bitcoin ($113,234) and Ethereum ($4,070) remain stable, per CoinMarketCap, but the bug highlights data reliability risks in DeFi. Investors should verify volumes from primary sources like Dune or Token Terminal. Follow @TheBlock__ on X for updates. Paradigm’s findings could spur industry-wide audits, ensuring transparent metrics for the growth of prediction markets.
