Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin (BTC) is poised for a major bull run, potentially reaching $250,000 by December 31, 2025, driven by the end of Federal Reserve quantitative tightening (QT) and improving global liquidity, per CoinPedia News. In a recent Milk Road Show interview, Hayes stated the setup mirrors the 2023 liquidity surge that fueled BTC’s rally, with the recent dip to $80,000 marking the cycle low, per. As of December 8, 2025, BTC trades at $91,119, up 1.55% daily and 6% weekly, while Ethereum (ETH) is at $3,112, gaining 1.87% daily and 10% weekly. The total crypto market cap hit $3.09T, up 1.1% in 24 hours.
Hayes attributes BTC’s potential surge to U.S. debt ceiling fights, which force the Treasury to draw down its Treasury General Account (TGA), injecting liquidity into markets In 2023, this process, combined with the Fed’s $2.5T reverse repo facility, pumped $2.5T into the economy, driving rallies in BTC, stocks, gold, and real estate, per. In 2025, with the reverse repo empty, QT and bond issuance drained $1T in liquidity from July to late 2025, pushing BTC to $80,000. However, QT has now paused, TGA is stabilising, and banks are lending again, signalling a liquidity bottom.
Unlike 2023’s ample reverse repo funds, 2025’s liquidity drain was sharper, but Hayes sees the Fed’s pivot as the key catalyst, per. ETF outflows and DAT weakness were misinterpreted as institutional selling; instead, they were basis trade unwinds, per. With QT ending and potential rate cuts in December (87% probability per Polymarket), BTC could surge past its $126,220 high to $250,000, per Hayes remains confident, stating, “We are bottom here and can go higher. X posts from @BullTheoryio echo this, noting JP Morgan’s BTC ETF integration into bonds,
Hayes’ forecast aligns with broader bullish sentiment, with BTC potentially benefiting from Fed QE and dollar liquidity upswing, per. ETH could follow, targeting $4,500 if BTC rallies, per. Investors should watch FOMC minutes on December 10 and Fed announcements via federalreserve.gov. Set BTC stop-losses at $80,000 and dollar-cost average, or diversify into USDC for stability, per TradingView. Follow @TheBlock__ on X for updates. With QT paused and liquidity improving, BTC’s 170% rally to $250,000 seems plausible by year-end.
