As of December 3, 2025, global markets are on edge ahead of the FOMC meeting on December 9-10, with Bitcoin (BTC) stabilizing between $90,000 and $95,000 after a recent pullback, per BH NEWS. The spotlight is on the Fed Chair transition, with Kevin Hassett emerging as the frontrunner to replace Jerome Powell in May 2026, boasting odds of 79% on Kalshi and 75% on PredictIt, per. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated a pre-Christmas announcement is likely, per. Betting markets give Hassett a dovish edge, potentially accelerating rate cuts, per.
The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 80% probability of a 25 bps cut at the December meeting, down from 97% in mid-October due to robust September jobs data, per. Fed Governor Christopher Waller and NY Fed President John Williams hinted at further easing, but the government shutdown delayed October data, leaving policymakers split, per. FOMC minutes from October noted uncertainty around December, with some favoring a pause amid 3% inflation, per. A dovish Powell speech at Jackson Hole could rally BTC to $100,000, while a hawkish tone risks a $85,000 dip, per.
BTC rebounded 3.2% to $95,000 post-volatility, with spot ETF inflows at $732B since 2022’s low, per. Glassnode data shows BTC trading closer to its $126,000 peak than the $76,000 cycle low, with 1.36M BTC in ETFs (6.9% supply), per. Realized volatility halved to 43%, and miner hash rates hold steady, indicating no bear capitulation, per. Ethereum (ETH) dipped to $4,100, testing $4,200 support, per. X posts from @CUKONG_inCRYPTO highlight Hassett’s nomination as a dovish signal, potentially pumping BTC, per.
Stock markets are steady, with S&P 500 up 0.5% and dollar index flat at 104, per. QCP Capital describes this as the “calm before the decision,” with BTC consolidating around $95,000, per. MicroStrategy issued $1.4B in shares to ease liquidity, boosting its NAV to 1.14, per. Altcoins like XRP ($2.29) and Solana (SOL) ($184.50) mirror BTC, per. A Hassett-led Fed could weaken the dollar, favoring crypto as a hedge, per.
