Glassnode and Fasanara Digital’s latest report, released December 2, 2025, dismisses claims of a Bitcoin bear market or “crypto winter,” arguing the current downturn lacks the hallmarks of past cycles. Bitcoin’s 18% drop over the past three months—from a $126,000 peak in October 2025 to around $113,000—has sparked fears, but analysts point to historical patterns of mid-cycle corrections in 2017, 2020, and 2023, where leverage reductions and macro tightening preceded further gains. The October 2025 deleveraging event mirrors these, suggesting a reset rather than reversal. As Glassnode notes, “The drawdown fits historical mid-cycle behavior rather than a full reversal.”
Bitcoin has attracted over $732 billion in net new capital since the 2022 cycle low of $16,000, surpassing all prior cycles combined and pushing realized cap to $1.1 trillion. Spot price has climbed to $126,000 at its high, with spot Bitcoin ETFs holding 1.36 million BTC (6.9% of circulating supply) amid sustained demand. Unlike true winters, where BTC falls toward cycle lows, it’s trading closer to its 2025 peak than the $76,000 bottom, indicating ongoing strength. One-year realized volatility has halved from 84% to 43%, contrasting with spikes at past winter starts. Miner hash rates remain stable, and long-term holders show no realized losses accumulation, reinforcing a bullish foundation.
Glassnode highlights absent bear signals: no hash rate drops or LTH capitulation, unlike 2018 or 2022. Short-term holders (STH) realized profit/loss ratio plunged to 0.07 in late October 2025, signaling liquidity evaporation from Q2-Q3 absorption, but LTH liquidity holds firm. If STH ratio compresses below 10x, deeper bear risks rise, but current data suggests consolidation. Smaller holders (1-1,000 BTC) net accumulated since early October, even as prices slid from $118,000 to $108,000, echoing 2020’s “hopeless” phase before a 170% quarterly surge. Bull cycles have lengthened historically, placing the current one 90 days from a potential November/December peak.
Bitcoin’s liquidity thinned post-October peak, with STH spending absorbing demand, but LTH Realized Profit/Loss Ratio remains elevated, indicating resolute holders. ETF inflows slowed in August after July’s record, but $732B net capital since 2022 dwarfs prior cycles. Geopolitical tensions, like Trump-Putin talks, add volatility, but BTC’s 0.45 gold correlation strengthens its hedge role. Experts like Vincent Liu from Kronos Research see sideways trading until clearer signals, with ETH’s $4,200 pivot key.
