The Federal Reserve’s October 28-29, 2025, FOMC meeting minutes, released on November 19, 2025, revealed deep divisions among officials on future interest rate cuts, citing a stalling labor market and persistent inflation, per. While the committee approved a 25 bps cut to the federal funds rate (now 3.75-4%), “many” participants favored the move, but “several” opposed it, with skepticism on a December cut, per. Jerome Powell’s remarks emphasized no preset path, with policy hinging on incoming data amid a 43-day government shutdown halting economic releases, per. This ambiguity has heightened market jitters, as traders priced in an 85% chance of a December cut pre-minutes, now slipping to 60%, per CME FedWatch.
Bitcoin (BTC) plunged 2.78% to $113,234 on November 19, 2025, hitting an intraday low of $112,709—its weakest since April—triggered by the minutes’ hawkish tilt, per. Ethereum (ETH) fared worse, dropping over 5% to $4,070, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment, per. The crypto market cap shed nearly $1T from July’s peak, with BTC’s 58.6% dominance holding amid caution, per CoinMarketCap. Kronos Research’s Vincent Liu attributes the sell-off to profit-taking and leveraged liquidations, noting ETH’s $4,200 pivot as key for recovery, per. X posts from @Sober_Trading highlight Nvidia earnings and payrolls as upcoming volatility drivers.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index crashed to 10 (“Extreme Fear”) on November 17, 2025—its lowest since July 2022—amid the downturn, per. This contrarian signal often precedes rebounds, as seen in early 2025 when a similar low preceded BTC’s rally from $75,000 to $128,000, per. However, Santiment data shows rising negative discussions on BTC, ETH, and XRP, with exchange inflows up 12%, indicating seller exhaustion, per. Presto Research’s Peter Chung warns a hawkish Jackson Hole speech on August 22 could exacerbate declines, while a dovish tone might spark a rally to $120,000 for BTC.
Sluggish job growth and stubborn inflation—core CPI at 2.6% in October—continue to unsettle markets, with the Fed’s ambiguity amplifying risks, per. ETF outflows in August (BTC spot ETFs net -$500M) reflect waning confidence, per. Analysts like Sentiment’s experts see rebound potential for BTC, ETH, and XRP, citing historical patterns where low indices herald recoveries, per. BTC support at $112,000 and resistance at $120,000 frame near-term action, per TradingView. With December FOMC looming, a dovish pivot could lift crypto 10-15%, but prolonged uncertainty risks a test of $100,000.
The crypto-economy interplay demands vigilance: monitor FOMC minutes impacts via federalreserve.gov and ETF flows on SoSoValue. Dollar-cost average into BTC or ETH with stop-losses below $112,000 and $4,000, respectively, or allocate to USDC for stability, per. Diversify across assets with BTC dominance >58%, signaling risk-off, per. Follow @TheBlock__ on X for real-time sentiment. Historical rebounds from extreme fear suggest opportunity, but align with Fed signals for 2025’s $150,000 BTC potential, per Techopedia.
