Galaxy Digital’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, stated on September 12, 2025, that there’s a “strong chance” the US government will announce the formation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) by year-end, treating BTC as a formal strategic asset. Thorn emphasized that the market is “completely underpricing” this probability, potentially triggering significant price appreciation if realized. This comes despite mixed industry views, with some executives like CoinRoutes’ former chairman Dave Weisburger predicting a 2026 timeline to avoid signaling accumulation strategies prematurely. Thorn’s optimism is based on recent policy signals, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s clarification on budget-neutral BTC acquisitions and the administration’s crypto liaison reaffirming interest in the reserve.
President Trump signed an executive order on March 6, 2025, establishing the SBR and US Digital Asset Stockpile, capitalizing it with approximately 198,000 BTC ($23.5 billion at $119,000/BTC) from forfeitures, excluding the Bitfinex seizure. Recent advancements include a July 31, 2025, congressional bill directing the Treasury to report on SBR feasibility and technical considerations, and a White House AI & Crypto Czar David Sacks-led working group set to deliver recommendations by July 2025. Bessent’s comments to Tucker Carlson and ongoing agency audits of digital asset holdings further indicate momentum. Thorn notes the US currently holds $15-20 billion in BTC, primarily from seizures, but a formal SBR announcement would elevate it to a reserve asset like gold.
Prominent Bitcoin advocates like Jan3 founder Samson Mow warn that US stalling could allow nations like Pakistan or Kyrgyzstan to front-run with their own reserves; Kyrgyzstan advanced a state crypto reserve bill on August 28, 2025, while Indonesia discussed economic growth strategies via Bitcoin on August 6. Thorn counters that the US’s $20 billion starting position provides a head start, but delays risk ceding ground in the global Bitcoin adoption race. Skeptics like Weisburger argue the administration is “too smart” to announce before reaching an initial accumulation target, potentially pushing formalization to 2026. Polymarket odds currently sit at 15% for a 2025 US national Bitcoin reserve, underscoring Thorn’s underpricing claim.
A formal SBR announcement could catalyze BTC toward $150,000 by year-end, per Techopedia, by legitimizing it as a reserve asset and spurring institutional inflows. BTC’s current price of $117,939 reflects a $2.45 trillion market cap, with 59% institutional ownership. Investors should monitor Treasury reports via treasury.gov and SBR executive order deadlines. Dollar-cost average into BTC with stop-losses below $112,000 support, or diversify into ETH ($4,070) or USDC, per TradingView. Follow @TheBlock__ on X for updates. While Thorn sees high odds, geopolitical competition and policy execution risks remain, positioning the SBR as a pivotal 2025 catalyst.
