Elliott Wave analysts, including Ledn’s CIO John Glover, project Bitcoin could surge to $135,000–$140,000 by the end of 2025, but warn of a bear market in 2026, per CoinDesk. Currently trading at $114,697, BTC has shed 4% this week, dipping to $112,000 amid Trump’s tariff-driven market turmoil, per CoinGlass. Glover’s analysis sees BTC in impulse wave (iii) of Wave 5, potentially hitting $130,000 in weeks before a wave (iv) dip to $110,000 in September, then rallying to $140,000 by year-end, per TradingView. @CryptoCon on X echoes this, citing alignment with Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle, but notes the absence of institutional backing makes these projections speculative. Historical surges, like 2017’s 1,900% rally, support the bullish case, per CoinMarketCap, yet macroeconomic headwinds cast doubt.
Elliott Wave Theory, pioneered by Ralph Nelson Elliott in 1938, maps market cycles through five impulse waves (1, 3, 5) and two corrective waves (2, 4), driven by crowd psychology, per elliottwave-forecast.com. Bitcoin’s current cycle, per Glover, is in an extended Wave 5, with wave (iii) nearing completion at $130,000. A September correction to $110,000 (wave iv) could precede the final push to $140,000 (wave v), per CoinDesk. However, Trump’s 35% Canadian tariffs and weak U.S. jobs data (73,000 added vs. 100,000 expected, per CNN) have spiked selling pressure, with $900M in crypto liquidations, per CoinoMedia. On-chain data shows long-term holders selling near $120,000, adding volatility, per IntoTheBlock. Technical risks include a break below $111,000, potentially triggering a slide to $103,000, per TradingView.
The SEC’s silence on Bitcoin price projections, alongside probes into schemes like Apertum Foundation, signals regulatory caution, per Cointelegraph. Trump’s tariffs, coupled with Federal Reserve’s steady 4.25%-4.5% rates, stoke inflation fears, pushing investors to gold and bonds, per The Block. Bitcoin ETF inflows ($588.6M in July, per SoSoValue) offer some support, but altcoins like Polkadot ($3.56) and Pi Network ($0.34) face steeper losses, per CoinGecko. @RektCapital on X warns of a 2026 bear market, projecting a 65-80% BTC crash post-peak, lasting over a year. Historical cycles, like 2018’s 83% drop, back this caution, per CoinMarketCap. Binance’s delisting of altcoin margin pairs like DOGS/FDUSD further squeezes liquidity, per Bitcoin Sistemi EN.
Bitcoin’s path to $140,000 hinges on breaking $120,000 resistance, with $111,000 as critical support, per CoinGape. Investors should scale back leverage to avoid liquidation risks, as seen in $144M BTC liquidations, per CoinGlass. Diversify into BTC or ETH ETFs for stability, and consider stablecoins to hedge altcoin volatility, per Reuters. Monitor Federal Reserve moves and tariff updates via @CoinDesk, and verify projects on CoinMarketCap. While @Martypartymusic on X sees $125,000-$160,000, skepticism persists, with @Vivek4real_ citing Michael Saylor’s $180,000 peak and $140,000 pullback. Elliott Wave offers a roadmap, but macroeconomic shocks and regulatory uncertainty demand caution. Don’t chase the hype—plan for the dip.
