As of February 12, 2026, a crypto market structure bill faces uncertain odds of passing in 2026, with estimates ranging from 25% to 60%, according to The Block. Senator Cynthia Lummis remains optimistic, aiming for the bill to reach President Donald Trump’s desk by year-end. This bipartisan legislation seeks to define SEC and CFTC oversight, classify digital assets as commodities or securities, and establish stablecoin rules. The Senate Banking Committee hearing with SEC Chair Paul Atkins on February 13, 2026, will gauge Democrat support, especially on ethics.
Stablecoin rewards dominate debates, pitting banks against crypto firms. Banks argue yields under the GENIUS Act could divert deposits, harming community banks, while crypto stakeholders defend third-party rewards on platforms like Coinbase. Recent White House meetings failed to resolve differences, with banks pushing stricter limits beyond current drafts barring direct interest. Kevin Wysocki of Anchorage Digital notes banks need the bill as much as crypto to limit rewards, estimating 50% passage odds. A compromise on activity-based incentives could unlock progress.
President Trump’s $1.4B from ventures like World Liberty Financial and a 20% stake in American Bitcoin fuel ethics questions, complicating Democrat support. Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott suggests ethics language belongs in the ethics committee. Ron Hammond of Wintermute cites received corruption as a hurdle, with no Democrats backing a recent Senate Agriculture Committee version. Midterm elections amplify scrutiny, as crypto PACs prepare millions for campaigns.
The bill’s fate hinges on Senate Banking markup in March 2026, following a pulled January session after Coinbase withdrew support. Blockchain Association’s Summer Mersinger emphasizes bipartisan momentum. Passage could attract $1T in institutional capital, boosting Bitcoin (BTC) ($113,234) and Ethereum (ETH) ($4,070). Investors should monitor Senate votes and ETF flows on SoSoValue. Dollar-cost average into BTC or ETH with stop-losses below $112,000 and $4,000, TradingView. Follow @TheBlock__ on X for updates. Despite hurdles, 2026 could deliver regulatory clarity.
