The U.S. government shutdown, now in its third week, has delayed the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to Friday, October 24, 2025, the first Friday release since January 2018, per CryptoPotato. This critical inflation data, expected to show a 2.9% year-over-year rise (unchanged from August) with core CPI at 2.7% (down from 3.1%), will be the last major economic input before the Federal Reserve’s October 28–29 meeting Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that a 25-basis-point rate cut is likely, prioritizing a weakening labor market over inflation concerns, per. However, sticky service prices and Trump’s 100% China tariff threat by November 1 could temper further cuts, amplifying market uncertainty.
Crypto markets consolidated with a 2% gain over the weekend, reaching a $3.85T total market cap. Bitcoin (BTC) hit $110,500 intraday, while Ethereum (ETH) reclaimed $4,000, with altcoins like Chainlink (LINK), Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA), and Sui (SUI) posting stronger gains, per. Ethena (ENA) saw mixed whale activity, with one holding a $21.3M long alongside $47.7M in BTC/ETH shorts, per. Whale strategies diverge: a $250M long on BTC/ETH contrasts with $140M+ in shorts, signaling no clear direction, per. The delayed CPI could sway these higher-than-expected inflation may trigger bearish moves, while a dovish Fed could spark a BTC rally to $120K, per.
Tariffs and a weak labor market (263,000 jobless claims, the highest since October 2021) complicate the Fed’s dual mandate, per. Private data like Truflation (2.3% inflation vs. CPI’s 2.9%) offers partial clarity, but lacks CPI’s breadth, per. X posts from @KobeissiLetter highlight market sensitivity to the CPI and Powell’s upcoming Jackson Hole speech.
Actionable Advice: Monitor CPI via bls.gov and Powell’s speech on X (@TheBlock). Hold BTC/ETH with stop-losses at $108K/$3,900; diversify into USDC for stability or ENA for yield (5%+ APY). TSLA’s earnings may sway risk assets $435 support, per the finance card above. The shutdown’s data blackout heightens volatility; stick to diversified, low-leverage positions, per.
